In a move that has left many scratching their heads, OPEC+ decided to keep oil production steady despite the chaos brewing among its members. But here's where it gets controversial: while the world grapples with plummeting oil prices—down a staggering 18% in 2025—the cartel chose to sidestep the political turmoil tearing apart its ranks. Why? Because, as one expert puts it, 'Oil markets are now driven more by political uncertainty than supply and demand.'
The decision came after a brief Sunday meeting of eight OPEC+ heavyweights, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the UAE, who together pump nearly half of the world’s oil. The group had already agreed in November to pause output hikes for the first three months of 2026 due to weak winter demand in the northern hemisphere. But this time, the meeting was notably short, with no mention of Venezuela—a member whose president was recently captured by the U.S. in a dramatic turn of events.
And this is the part most people miss: the rift between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, once unbreakable allies, has deepened over the Yemen conflict. Last month, a UAE-aligned group seized territory from the Saudi-backed government, sparking the biggest divide between the two in decades. Meanwhile, Russia’s oil exports are dwindling under U.S. sanctions over the Ukraine war, and Iran faces internal protests and external threats. Yet, OPEC+ chose stability over action, prioritizing market management over these explosive issues.
Venezuela, sitting on the world’s largest oil reserves, has seen production collapse due to mismanagement and sanctions. Even if U.S. oil giants pour in the billions Trump promised, analysts doubt a quick recovery. So, while OPEC+ has historically overcome internal disputes—like during the Iran-Iraq War—the current crises feel different. Is this the beginning of the end for the cartel’s unity, or will they weather the storm? Let us know what you think in the comments—this debate is far from over.
